UK economy grew by 0.3% in November
Newsflash: The UK economy has returned to growth, and more vigorously than expected.
UK GDP expanded by 0.3% in November, new data from the Office for National Statistics shows, after shrinking a little in October.
That’s faster than expected; City economists had expected growth of just 0.1%
In another boost, September’s growth figures have been revised higher, showing that the economy didn’t shrink that month after all.
The ONS says:
Monthly GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.3%, following an unrevised fall of 0.1% in October 2025 and a growth of 0.1% in September 2025 (revised up from our initial estimate of a fall of 0.1%).
More to follow….
Key events
NIESR: GDP report is ‘welcome news’
Economists are welcoming the news that Britain’s economy grew more rapidly than expected in November.
Ben Caswell, senior economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, suspects that Rachel Reeves’s commitment to expanding her budget fiscal headroom helped lift confidence, saying:
“Today’s data is welcome news for the UK economy, with GDP growing modestly in November despite the uncertainty in the run-up to the Budget.
Given today’s figure, we now project that the economy grew 1.4 per cent in 2025 – a rise in the growth rate compared to the year before.
Against this backdrop, the Chancellor more than doubled her fiscal headroom at the Budget in an effort to bolster economic confidence. While it is too early to see the full effect of this, the move appears to have eased speculation over future tax policy and the uncertainty that came with it.”
Taking a longer-term view, UK GDP is estimated to be 1.4% higher in November 2025, compared with November 2024.
Economy grew by 0.1% in last three months
Today’s GDP report shows that the UK economy only grew by 0.1% over the last quarter, despite the pacier 0.3% growth in November alone.
ONS director of economic statistics, Liz McKeown says:
“The economy grew slightly in the latest three months, led by growth in the services sector, which performed better in November following a weak October.
“This was partially offset by a fall in manufacturing, where three-monthly growth was still affected by the cyber incident that impacted car production earlier in the Autumn. However, data for the latest month show that this industry has now largely recovered.
“Construction contracted again, registering its largest three-monthly fall in nearly three years.”
Car manufacturing surges afer JLR hack ended
UK manufacturing drove the economic recovery in November, thanks to the resumption of work at Jaguar Land Rover’s factory.
Manufacturing output grew by 2.1% in November, including growth of 10.7% in the manufacture of transport equipment, mainly driven by a 25.5% increase in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers.
This follows a growth of 9.6% in October, and a fall of 29.5% in September – when JLR’s factories were shut by a cyber attack for a month.
Manufacturing of pharmaceutical products, and basic metals and metal, also rose in the month.
Services and production grew, but construction shrank
The UK’s services sector, which makes up around three-quarters of the economy, expanded by 0.3% in November.
Production grew faster, with output rising by 1.1%.
But construction shrank by 1.3% in November, with builders reporting a drop in new work, and repair and maintenance.
UK economy grew by 0.3% in November
Newsflash: The UK economy has returned to growth, and more vigorously than expected.
UK GDP expanded by 0.3% in November, new data from the Office for National Statistics shows, after shrinking a little in October.
That’s faster than expected; City economists had expected growth of just 0.1%
In another boost, September’s growth figures have been revised higher, showing that the economy didn’t shrink that month after all.
The ONS says:
Monthly GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.3%, following an unrevised fall of 0.1% in October 2025 and a growth of 0.1% in September 2025 (revised up from our initial estimate of a fall of 0.1%).
More to follow….
Housing market may be turning a corner as confidence grows, surveyors say
While we wait for the UK GDP data to land at 7am, there are signs of improvement in the housing market.
A poll of UK surveyors has found that confidence is returning to the market, with expectations for sales and prices turning higher in December.
The latest RICS UK Residential Market Survey found that sales expectations over the next three months had hit the highest level since October 2024.
Looking further ahead, a net balance of +34% of respondents expected sales volumes to rise over the next year – more than double the level seen in November.
Surveyors point to easing interest rate expectations and the clearing of Budget-related uncertainty as key drivers behind the turnaround in mood.
However, RICS’s measure of buyer demand and agreed sales remained in negative territory in December.
The latest @RICSnews Residential Market Survey for December 2025 showed a market preparing to move on from budget uncertainty galvanised by reduced interest rates and the fear of further rental growth. Despite house prices falling further in December and more acutely in London… pic.twitter.com/VQMiEgRs4I
— Emma Fildes (@emmafildes) January 15, 2026
RICS’s head of market research & analysis, Tarrant Parsons, says:
“The UK residential market remains in a prolonged soft patch, with December’s survey recording a sixth consecutive month of negative momentum in buyer enquiries. That said, there are tentative signs of a shift in sentiment beneath the surface.
“Near-term sales expectations have strengthened, and the twelve-month outlook has edged into more positive territory. The key test for 2026 will be whether borrowing costs ease on a sustained basis. If so, this could provide the catalyst needed to drive a recovery in buyer demand.”
Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, says:
This morning, we receive the latest GDP figures from here in the UK, with the economy set to have grown just 0.1% MoM in November, largely resulting from the continued resumption of JLR production as the recovery from last year’s cyber attack continues.
Such an anaemic pace of growth, though, is hardly a ringing endorsement of the UK’s economic prospects, not least considering that risks to the outlook remain tilted firmly to the downside, and that the fiscal ‘doom loop’ seems set to continue, with the government’s latest U-turns eroding as much as two-thirds of the headroom that Chancellor Reeves left herself at the November Budget.
Introduction: UK GDP report for November coming up!
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
City investors may be warbling Taylor Swift’s lyric, “Gray November, I’ve been down since July,” this morning, as they learn how the UK economy performed in the 11th month of 2025.
November’s GDP report, due at 7am UK time, will show whether the UK has shaken off its recent malaise.
Economists are hopeful that Britain returned to growth in November, with expectations that GDP rose by 0.1% in the month.
Although that would be modest growth, it would pull the UK out of a stagnant period in which the economy shrank by 0.1% in July, September and October, and was flat in August (although these figures could be revised).
Much of the month was dominated by speculation about the budget, which arrived on 26 November; activity in the car industry should have picked up after the cyber attack at JLR ended.
Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, sets the scene…
After a disappointing start to the fourth quarter, we expect some rebound in November. Some catch-up in activity, we think, is likely.
Activity trackers improved in November, as Budget uncertainty diminished. We will also be looking for any (upward) revisions to either the September or October GDP prints.
The agenda
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7am GMT: UK GDP report for November
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7am GMT: UK trade report for November
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9am GMT: German full year GDP report
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1.30pm GMT: US initial jobless claims report
