WASHINGTON (TNND) — Following a rollercoaster year for the U.S. economy, small business owners hope 2026 brings more stable – or at least more predictable – economic conditions. Without adequate staffing, that may not be possible.
The vast majority of small business owners, 89%, who were hiring or trying to hire in November, said they had few or no qualified applications to fill vacant jobs, according to the National Federation of Independent Business, and one-third of all owners said they had openings they could not fill. Even with this shortage, 19% said they plan to create new jobs in the next three months, the highest percentage in nearly a year.
Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America, the nation’s largest small business lender, said they’re seeing this play out firsthand with their clients.
“Their issue right now is, can I get the labor I need to bid the contracts, to do the work I’m doing? Because the immigration policies haven’t settled in yet and that’s causing people concern. It’s not that they agree with it or disagree, they just need to have the answer, and that’s what they’re looking for,” Moynihan said.
One-fifth of small business owners said labor quality was their single most important problem, NFIB reported. Inflation and taxes also ranked as top issues.
“Although optimism increased, small business owners are still frustrated by the lack of qualified workers. Despite this, more firms still plan to create new jobs in the near future,” NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg said.
In its macro outlook for next year, Goldman Sachs said the job market looks “less than inspiring.”
“(I)n part because the ongoing productivity acceleration raises the bar for how much GDP growth is needed to create jobs. The disconnect is particularly pronounced in the U.S., where the unemployment rate is trending higher despite solid GDP growth,” Goldman Sachs economists said.
In November, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over 12 months, average hourly wages rose 3.5%, continuing to outpace inflation.
“But it’s what people feel, and you can’t discount that and it’s also, at certain job categories and stuff there’s been more dislocation and that’s due to some of the government downsizing and some of the other things going on,” Moynihan said.
The Federal Reserve’s current median projection for unemployment is 4.4% by the end of 2026. Central bankers will update their economic projections in mid-March.
