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Romer: 2026 business outlook | VailDaily.com

Romer: 2026 business outlook | VailDaily.com

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As we enter 2026, many Eagle County businesses are asking the same questions: What will the economic landscape look like? Where should we focus our energy? And how do we prepare for the uncertainties that seem to define every new year?

Last month’s U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Update offered a valuable look at the national trends shaping our local conversations. While Washington often feels far away, the policies created there have very real implications for employers here in the mountains. From Vail to Gypsum, our business community continues to demonstrate resilience and creativity. Staying informed and engaged is more important than ever.

One of the most significant developments last year was the passage of the federal package informally known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” Despite its lighthearted nickname, the bill carries a serious impact. It prevented steep tax increases that would have hit small employers particularly hard, and it created new incentives aimed at encouraging business investment. For Eagle County companies operating in one of the nation’s highest-cost environments, predictability is a competitive necessity. These reforms give businesses the chance to plan, invest in new equipment, upgrade technology, and better manage cash flow. In an economy where margins are tight and costs continue to rise, a little stability goes a long way.



Of course, no update on the business climate would be complete without addressing the ongoing workforce challenges. Hiring remains a daily struggle across the valley. Restaurants, retailers, healthcare, hospitality, construction firms — nearly every sector feels the pressure of a labor market that simply doesn’t have enough people to meet demand. Housing costs are a persistent factor, but national policy choices also matter. A proposed $100,000 fee for H-1B visas, for example, threatens to make an already difficult situation worse. The U.S. Chamber has pushed back on this proposal, noting that it would disproportionately harm small businesses that rely on specialized talent and cannot absorb such an unrealistic cost. In Eagle County, where workforce shortages are structural and long-term, ill-designed policies like this have outsized impacts.

Another area worth watching is artificial intelligence. Generative AI is no longer a novelty — it’s a tool being adopted by more than half of small businesses nationwide, and Eagle County is no exception. Local companies are using AI to improve customer communication, draft marketing materials, and enhance operational efficiency. With that opportunity comes a new layer of complexity. Several states are introducing AI-specific regulations that could influence how businesses collect data, use algorithms, and communicate with customers. For local companies working with national partners, compliance may soon require additional diligence. The technology is exciting, but we must be thoughtful and responsible in how we integrate it into our work.

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The broader economic outlook for 2026 remains uncertain yet cautiously optimistic. Tourism continues to be stable, construction activity is steady, and professional services are consistent. Yet policy uncertainty — from tariff debates to immigration changes to new regulatory frameworks — means businesses must remain attentive. When we combine this national uncertainty with our local realities of high operating costs and a constrained labor market, long-term planning becomes crucial.

One message from the U.S. Chamber’s briefing stood out: advocacy matters. The businesses that thrive in uncertain times are the ones that stay engaged, share their perspectives, and help shape the policies that affect them. Here in Eagle County, your participation in our advocacy efforts truly influences outcomes.

The insights offered in the briefing are timely, relevant, and highly valuable as we move into 2026. Together, with informed strategy and strong engagement, we can continue to support a thriving, resilient business community in Eagle County.

Chris Romer is president & CEO of Vail Valley Partnership, 3-time national chamber of the year. Learn more at VailValleyPartnership.com

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