Krispy Kreme (DNUT): Global Expansion and Meme Stock Frenzy Put Valuation in the Spotlight

Krispy Kreme (DNUT) just launched an aggressive international expansion by opening its first Madrid shop and announcing new stores in Brazil and Uzbekistan. This franchise-driven strategy coincides with a recent surge in meme-fueled retail trading activity around the stock.

See our latest analysis for Krispy Kreme.

Krispy Kreme’s bold international push and flashy sponsorship deals have helped fuel a sharp, meme-trader-driven rally in recent weeks, even as the stock remains highly volatile after a tough year. Despite these headline-grabbing surges, the 1-year total shareholder return stands deeply negative, reflecting ongoing challenges and underscoring why momentum around DNUT has been both dramatic and precarious.

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So after recent surges and turnaround plans, are investors getting a bargain on Krispy Kreme before global expansion pays off? Or is Wall Street already baking future growth into today’s stock price?

Most Popular Narrative: 7.6% Overvalued

With the current share price above the narrative’s fair value estimate, Krispy Kreme looks stretched by this lens. The scene is set for a closer look at the numbers driving the story.

The shift toward a more capital-light international franchise model, combined with a strong pipeline of new markets and franchisee expansion (for example, new markets like France, Brazil, UAE/KFC partnership, and first entry into Spain), is expected to accelerate unit growth and drive higher, more predictable returns on capital. This supports both long-term revenue growth and higher margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to uncover the bold strategy that justifies this premium price? This narrative leans on projected global expansion, streamlined operations, and margin transformation. The crucial driver behind the math is a profit rebound scenario, but the specifics could surprise you. Click through to see exactly what future could power this valuation.

Result: Fair Value of $3.70 (OVERVALUEd)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, persistent U.S. market weakness and major execution risks could quickly derail the international focused rebound Krispy Kreme is aiming for.

Find out about the key risks to this Krispy Kreme narrative.

Another View: Multiples Tell a Different Story

Switching to value Krispy Kreme by its price-to-sales ratio, the picture looks more optimistic. DNUT trades at just 0.4x sales, which is well below the US Hospitality industry average of 1.7x and the peer group average of 8.8x. This is also beneath its fair ratio of 0.7x, suggesting potential undervaluation. Is the market overlooking an opportunity, or is there a risk that these low multiples reflect real challenges?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Krispy Kreme Narrative

If you see things differently, or want to dig into the data on your own terms, it’s quick and easy to craft your own story in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Krispy Kreme research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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