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How Renewed Analyst Optimism on Temu’s Global Sales May Shape PDD Holdings’ (PDD) Investment Narrative

How Renewed Analyst Optimism on Temu’s Global Sales May Shape PDD Holdings’ (PDD) Investment Narrative

Table of Contents

  • In recent days, Citi Research highlighted that PDD Holdings’ third-quarter profits may exceed expectations following the end of merchant support measures and a strong sales rebound on its US and European Temu platforms. Analysts also anticipate continued resilience in PDD’s China operations, aided by major promotional events and supportive market conditions.

  • An important insight is that analyst optimism centers on PDD’s ability to deliver outperformance across multiple markets even as it cycles beyond earlier support measures, suggesting increasing confidence in its international expansion and domestic market strength.

  • We’ll explore how renewed earnings optimism from Temu’s international sales growth impacts PDD Holdings’ overall investment narrative.

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To be a PDD Holdings shareholder, you need to believe that its heavy investments in ecosystem improvement and international growth will ultimately drive sustained revenue and profit expansion, even if near-term margins remain pressured. Recent Citi Research commentary suggesting third-quarter profit could exceed expectations, helped by Temu’s US and European sales rebound, is supportive of this thesis. However, the most important near-term catalyst remains Temu’s international momentum, while ongoing margin pressure from large investment programs stays the most significant risk. This news doesn’t materially alter those dynamics but does highlight optimism for international growth.

Among recent developments, Citi’s expectation of a potential profit beat due to the end of merchant support measures stands out. This shift is particularly relevant because it reduces ongoing spending, offering temporary margin relief, though long-term success still depends on Temu’s ability to maintain momentum abroad and PDD’s resilience in China.

By contrast, investors should closely watch how profit margins evolve if investment intensity increases again…

Read the full narrative on PDD Holdings (it’s free!)

PDD Holdings’ outlook forecasts CN¥555.7 billion in revenue and CN¥147.1 billion in earnings by 2028. This implies a 10.7% annual revenue growth rate and a CN¥49.2 billion increase in earnings from the current CN¥97.9 billion.

Uncover how PDD Holdings’ forecasts yield a $143.36 fair value, a 9% upside to its current price.

PDD Community Fair Values as at Oct 2025

Simply Wall St Community members provided 18 fair value estimates for PDD Holdings, ranging from US$143.36 to US$362.79 per share. While opinions vary, many analyses focus on the tension between sustained global expansion efforts and the risk of prolonged margin pressure, a theme central to current debates about PDD’s future performance.

Explore 18 other fair value estimates on PDD Holdings – why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes – extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

  • A great starting point for your PDD Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.

  • Our free PDD Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual – the Snowflake – making it easy to evaluate PDD Holdings’ overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include PDD.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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