RaboResearch flags volatile trade and cautious expansion
2 February 2026
1 minute read
According to a recent RaboResearch report, the global pork industry will see uneven production growth while trade patterns continue to shift. Several factors will impact global supply, including biosecurity, disease pressures, relatively high construction costs and trade restrictions. Trade policy changes in major countries will continue to reshuffle trade flows in the coming year. The focus will be on productivity, cost reduction and cautious expansion.
Production to rise in 1H, then decline in 2H
Global production is expected to increase in 1H, driven by growth across major producing countries.
RaboResearch expects modest growth in the US, EU, and China in 1H, and steady growth in Brazil.
“The driving forces for growth vary by region,” explains Chenjun Pan, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein for RaboResearch. “Productivity improvements weigh more than previously in the US, China, the EU and Brazil, while the large herd size is another main cause of output growth for China. Production in 2H 2026 is expected to slow down and even decline, largely driven by the herd reduction in China and Spain. In China, producers scale back to rebalance, while Spain faces ASF-related trade constraints that lead to herd cuts.”
Trade is expected to remain volatile due to policy changes
Global pork trade showed an uneven performance in 2025, as Brazil recorded 12% export growth, while other key exporting countries, such as the US and Canada, saw single digit declines. Into 2026, major importing countries, including China and Mexico, are adjusting import policies. Mexico will introduce import quota to non-FTA suppliers and launch anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations into US pork, while China imposes anti-dumping duties on EU pork imports. Japan and the Philippines, major importers, still ban Spanish pork due to ASF concerns. All these developments suggest trade volatility will continue in 2026.
Herd health remains a challenge in 2026
ASF continues to spread in Vietnam and the Philippines, hindering local production recovery. Although ASF has not affected the domestic herd in Spain, the industry faces increased pressure from stricter biosecurity and disease control measures. PRRS continues to weigh on production in the US and Mexico.
