The local commercial real estate market has picked up and is expected to strengthen in 2026 as interest rates fall, insurance costs ease and construction prices stabilize, according to Capital Region experts.
Charlie Colvin of Momentum Commercial Real Estate says activity has noticeably increased, with many deals moving toward completion before year’s end.
“We’re starting to see some new development, which has really been … slow all the way back to 2020,” Colvin says. “We’re starting to see some new construction get off the ground in the retail sector.”
Colvin says new development clients are acquiring and developing sites and some are building multitenant retail space.
He adds that while some development remains focused on leasing, lower interest rates and incentives from the legislation referred to as the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” that passed Congress earlier this year are helping drive new construction and expansion.
Earlier this year, uncertainty surrounding impending tariffs slowed activity, but Colvin says the outlook has since stabilized, allowing developers to better estimate project costs.
“I think the biggest impact of the tariffs was just an impediment in terms of new deals into the pipeline,” he says. “Kind of pausing for a period while everybody figured out what that longer-term picture looked like. It really was an interruption where they were changing on a daily or weekly basis.”
Market sentiment is stronger than last year, Colvin says, with food and beverage operators—particularly coffee and other caffeine-focused businesses—showing notable momentum.
Jonathan Walker of Maestri Murrell says 2025 has seen more leasing than sales across retail, industrial and office sectors, with quick-service restaurants and coffee shops remaining active buyers.
Walker expects 2026 to be “a really good year,” citing declining interest rates and a rare bright spot for the region: a quiet hurricane season that kept insurance renewals lower.
“We got through a hurricane season unscathed, which was huge not only for just the health of the real estate market, but for insurance renewals,” he says. “You combine interest rates with lower insurance rates and construction costs starting to level out, and I think that leads to a really good year in 2026.”
He anticipates leasing will continue to outpace large sales but says development activity should rise.
“At the beginning of 2025, we were fighting with those three I’s: interest rates, insurance rates and inflation,” Walker says. “Considering all three of those have leveled off here at the very end of this year, that’s why I think that 2026 is going to be a little bit better than 2025.”
Colvin says the grocery sector will be one to watch in the coming year, pointing to Aldi’s expansion through site acquisitions and renovations of former Winn-Dixie locations. He also notes Super 1’s takeover of a former Winn-Dixie on Siegen Lane and highlighted Associated Grocers’ strong presence across the market.
