SAN JOSE, Calif. — Online sales within the furniture category are expected to increase this holiday season, with home goods shoppers focused on lower-priced items, according to the holiday online shopping forecast from Adobe based on Adobe Analytics data.
Overall, U.S. online sales are expected to hit $253.4 billion between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, which represents 5.3% year-over-year growth. Cyber Week, which is the five-day stretch that includes Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday, is predicted to drive nearly $44 billion in sales, or about 17% of overall seasonal spending, a 6.3% year-over-year increase.
Adobe expects significant discounting this holiday season, including 18% discounts in the furniture/home category, which is on par with last year’s 19%. The deepest cuts as retailers compete for shoppers will be in electronics (28%), toys (27%), apparel (25%) and TVs and computers (23%).
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While there are some categories in which consumers will be willing trade up to higher ticket items to get more value, such as sporting goods, electronics, appliances, personal care and tools/home improvement, furniture doesn’t fit that trend. With furniture/home goods, shoppers are embracing lower-priced products this year, just as they are for groceries, the forecast said.
Still, even with a more budget-conscious outlook among furniture shoppers, the category is expected to have an online spend this holiday season of $31.1 billion, up 6.5% over 2024’s $29.2 billion. Coupled with electronics ($57.5 billion and a 4% y-o-y increase) and apparel ($47.6 billion/up 4.4% y-o-y), these three categories will account for more than half (53.7%) of this season’s online spending.
The biggest shopping day during Cyber Week will remain Cyber Monday, with a predicted $14.2 billion spent vs. $11.7 billion for Black Friday and $6.4 billion in Thanksgiving.
The use of buy-now-pay-later will drive $20.2 billion in online business during the holiday shopping season, up about $2 billion from 2024. Like all online shopping, BNPL is strongest on mobile devices. Mobile is anticipated to garner 56.1% of holiday e-commerce. Just five years ago, mobile accounted for 40%.
The online shopping forecast is based on Adobe Analytics data, which analyzes direct transactions online covering more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories.
