Artificial intelligence (AI)-powered personal shopping assistants could become a major force in ecommerce over the next five years, potentially driving up to $385 billion in U.S. online sales by 2030, according to a new report from Morgan Stanley Research.
Technology companies have designed these autonomous digital tools — which they call agentic shoppers — to operate continuously. The agentic shoppers scan retailers’ websites for hard-to-find products, comparing prices and anticipating recurring purchases with little or no user input.
“Agentic will be a paradigm shift for ecommerce,” said Nathan Feather, an analyst who covers small- and mid-cap internet companies at Morgan Stanley, in the report. “With greater digitization of consumers’ wallets, this could shake up the e-commerce funnel with implications across retailers and digital advertising players.”
Agentic shoppers’ roles in ecommerce sales
Agentic commerce remains in the early stages of development, but usage trends are building, the firm said. Nearly 23% of Americans made at least one AI-assisted purchase in the past month, based on responses to Morgan Stanley’s AlphaWise consumer survey.
Adoption of large language model (LLM) platforms is nearing 50% of U.S. consumers, signaling growing comfort with AI-enabled shopping tools.
Grocery and consumer packaged goods currently lead AI-driven purchase behavior, according to the survey. Morgan Stanley analysts said those categories could be the fastest-growing opportunities for agentic commerce through 2030 because of their frequency and focus on replenishment.
Morgan Stanley estimates agentic shoppers could account for 10% to 20% of U.S. ecommerce spending by the end of the decade. That growth would have ripple effects across the digital economy, including how retailers compete for visibility within AI-driven recommendations and how advertisers reach consumers.
“To reach widespread adoption, companies first need to develop products and consumer habits have to evolve,” said Brian Nowak, Morgan Stanley’s head of U.S. internet research. “But it also underscores the risks and opportunities for retailers partnering with these bigger platforms.”
As major online retailers and technology companies continue to embed artificial intelligence into their shopping experiences, Morgan Stanley said the shift toward automated buying appears increasingly likely — and its impact increasingly significant.
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