TOKYO – The International Energy Agency cut its five-year prediction for global offshore wind power generation by more than a quarter, citing policy shifts in the United States, as well as project cancellations in Japan and elsewhere.
The expansion in offshore wind capacity is estimated to reach 140 gigawatts over the five-year period through 2030, down 27 percent from last year’s forecast, according to the IEA’s main annual report on renewable energy released earlier this month.
In its “Renewables 2025” report, the Paris-based body said it factored in “project cancellations and delays in Europe, Japan, and India due to higher costs and supply chain challenges” when making the downward revision.
In August, Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. announced its withdrawal from offshore wind power projects with a Chubu Electric Power Co. subsidiary and others, after construction costs more than doubled from initial plans, dealing a blow to the government’s renewable energy push.
It had planned to build 134 wind turbines at three sites off northeastern and eastern Japan, with commercial operations initially scheduled to begin between 2028 and 2030 and projected to continue through 2052.
The IEA report cited “policy changes” in the United States, where President Donald Trump returned to the White House for his second nonconsecutive term in January, pledging to boost fossil fuel production, as another reason behind the weaker outlook.
Overall, the IEA projected global renewable power capacity to double over the next five years, up by 4,600 gigawatts, with solar photovoltaic, or solar PV, accounting for around 80 percent of the increase.
“The growth in global renewable capacity in the coming years will be dominated by solar PV, but with wind, hydropower, bioenergy and geothermal all contributing, too,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a press release.
The report also said renewables are expected to surpass coal at the end of this year, or by mid-2026 at the latest, to become “the largest source of electricity generation globally.”
