The first signs of stress, according to industry executives, are visible in packaging costs and inventory movement and fulfilment cycles, particularly for quick commerce platforms that depend on high-frequency restocking. Demand-side pressures could emerge if fuel prices rise sharply, they said.
“We are already seeing delays in key markets such as Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh, with trucks arriving late and slowing inventory replenishment. At the same time, output from some manufacturers, including large FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) companies, has been disrupted, creating supply gaps,” said a senior quick commerce executive, who did not wish to be identified.
This follows an earlier shortage of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). According to a research note by brokerage firm Morgan Stanley, LPG and gas shortages led to temporary shutdowns and production disruptions across sectors such as FMCG, chemicals and packaging, while logistics costs have now risen due to rerouting and fuel constraints.
“For quick commerce platforms, even minor delays can result in stockouts, higher sourcing costs and pressure on service levels. We are also monitoring diesel availability for generator sets powering dark stores to ensure uninterrupted operations,” the executive said.
The disruption comes at a time when quick commerce is already under pressure to improve its unit economics.
The sector continues to grapple with high last-mile delivery costs, significant investments in dark store networks and thin margins. The current cost shock could intensify the challenges, said executives and analysts.
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“Any fuel price hike will require higher payouts to gig workers and delivery partners,” the senior quick commerce executive said. “If platforms begin passing on costs through higher delivery fees or product prices, demand could be tested.”
Eternal, Swiggy, Zepto, Amazon, Flipkart, Meesho and Bigbasket did not respond to ET’s queries till press time.
Packaging costs on the rise
Increasing input costs, especially of packaging materials, have emerged as a key source of stress for these businesses.
A senior quick commerce executive said companies are preparing for multiple cost pressures, with plastics and polymer-based inputs becoming 30-40% costlier in recent weeks.
“In the near term, packaging costs are rising for both brands and platforms. Even paper bags used in deliveries contain polymer components, and there is a shortage. Given the damage to global energy supply chains, recovery will take time… even if the conflict ends soon,” said another executive.
The cost escalation is broad-based, according to industry participants.
“Polymer-based boxes are used in all quick commerce dark stores to store and transport inventory, so the price increase has a direct impact on platforms. Even cardboard and paper costs are up 10-15%,” said Angad Singh, founding member at Zippee, a quick commerce logistics platform.
For now, some companies are cushioned by existing inventory. “We haven’t seen an immediate impact because we have adequate packaging and storage material from earlier procurements. The real impact will be visible when we replenish next,” Singh added.
But for others, the impact is already translating into price increases. “Input costs for products using plastics have gone up. As a result, the selling price for such products are increasing by 10-15% across the industry. We are gradually raising prices as we monitor the situation,” an ecommerce seller said on condition of anonymity.
This reflects a trend highlighted in a report by Nomura, which said that rising input costs linked to crude derivatives and commodities are being passed on through price hikes across consumer categories.
Logistics companies are also feeling the squeeze, particularly from fuel-linked costs.
The founder of a logistics firm said prices of urea, used by truckers to comply with emission norms, have more than doubled in recent weeks and will be passed on to ecommerce and quick commerce clients.
“One of the big concerns is diesel. Once that goes up, logistics and other costs will increase. Sellers will start passing this on to consumers,” said Satish Meena, founder of Datum Intelligence. “The impact of the plastic price surge will be seen in the coming weeks. Platforms are in a wait-and-see mode and have not taken any major action yet.”
Even without a sharp increase in retail fuel prices yet, companies are factoring in higher freight rates and supply chain inefficiencies, echoing disruptions flagged across sectors in recent weeks.
