Mexico’s retail landscape is undergoing a structural transformation as digital commerce becomes the primary driver of growth, outpacing traditional physical storefronts. According to the National Association of Self-Service and Department Stores (ANTAD), affiliated chains generated MX$$1.6 trillion in total sales in 2025. While growth at physical stores remained subdued, e-commerce surged nearly 24%, signaling a shift in consumer behavior toward a mobile-first, digital economy.
The association reported that same-store sales—a key metric measuring locations open for at least one year—grew by just 3.1%. Total store sales increased 5.6%, a figure driven primarily by the opening of 1,700 new locations, rather than stronger organic demand. These figures suggest that traditional retail expansion is approaching diminishing returns, as consumers become more selective and cautious in their spending.
Digital Acceleration Outpaces Physical Retail
The digital segment has emerged as the sector’s clear growth engine. In 2025, online sales reached MX$86.7 billion, reflecting nominal growth of 23.8%. Department stores led this expansion with a 26.9% increase in online revenue, followed by self-service formats at 16.2%. Overall, the online channel is now expanding at a pace up to seven times faster than physical retail.
Pierre-Claude Blaise, CEO, Mexican Online Sales Association (AMVO), noted that Mexico’s digital growth curve resembles China’s trajectory from roughly a decade ago. Projections indicate that by 2026, online sales will account for 17.7% of total retail sales in Mexico, approaching penetration levels seen in the United States. This momentum is underpinned by a mobile-first consumer base, with 85% of online purchases made via smartphones.
Investment and Economic Headwinds
Despite a cooling macroeconomic backdrop—Mexico’s GDP grew just 0.6% in 2025, while inflation stood at 3.69%—ANTAD members invested US$3.3 billion during the year. That investment supported the creation of approximately 790,000 direct formal jobs. For 2026, the association projects a more optimistic investment figure of US$3.7 billion, alongside an expected 6.3% increase in total sales.
Structural challenges, however, persist. Vincent Speranza, managing director, Endeavor Mexico, highlighted that while online marketplaces tend to dominate headlines, the bulk of venture capital is flowing into the ecosystem’s “enabling layers,” including payments, credit, and logistics.
Logistics remains a key friction point. Although delivery networks now offer same-day service in more than 25 cities, consumer tolerance is low: 50% of users are willing to abandon a platform after a single poor delivery experience, underscoring the importance of execution in last-mile operations.
The 2026 Outlook: Reinvestment and Innovation
Looking ahead, the retail sector faces several risks, including uncertainty surrounding the USMCA, inflationary pressures, and competition from the informal economy. While the FIFA World Cup is expected to provide a temporary boost to categories such as electronics, sporting goods, and food and beverages, industry leaders stress that sustainable growth will require deeper reinvention of retail business models.
Future expansion is expected to depend on increasing purchase frequency and unlocking underpenetrated categories such as fashion. To achieve this, retailers are increasingly turning to fintech solutions—including microcredit and Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) models—to broaden access for underbanked consumers.
