Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicts a “gigantic” tax refund year for working Americans in the first quarter of 2026.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted that Americans will see “gigantic” refund checks in the upcoming filing season, thanks to tax cuts in President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).
Bessent, who also serves as the acting commissioner of the IRS, made the remark during an appearance on the “All-In Podcast.” The treasury secretary told the hosts that the tax provisions in the act, which Trump signed in July, applied retroactively to the beginning of the year, and because most workers did not change their withholdings, many can expect sizable refunds in 2026.
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President Donald Trump speaks alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at The White House Digital Assets Summit at the White House on March 7, 2025, in Washington, D.C. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images / Getty Images)
“I can see that we’re gonna have a gigantic refund year in the first quarter because working Americans did not change their withholdings,” Bessent told the “All-In Podcast” hosts. “I think households could see, depending on the number of workers, $1,000- $2,000 refunds.”
Bessent’s prediction echoes that of the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan tax policy nonprofit. The group said in a Dec. 17 report that “refunds will be larger than typical in the upcoming filing season because of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s (OBBBA) tax cuts for 2025.”
President Donald Trump signs the sweeping spending and tax legislation, known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” at the White House in Washington, D.C., on July 4, 2025. (Ken Cedeno/Reuters / Reuters)
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The foundation reported its estimate that the OBBBA reduced individual taxes by $144 billion for 2025, adding that outside estimates suggest that up to $100 billion of that could go to higher tax refunds for Americans. While not everyone will see a massive jump in their refunds, the Tax Foundation said that the savings from the OBBBA could push average refunds up by up to $1,000.
“But because the IRS did not adjust withholding tables after the law passed, workers generally continued to withhold more taxes from their paychecks than the new law required. As a result, instead of gradually receiving the benefit of the tax cuts through higher take-home pay during the year, most taxpayers will receive it all at once when they file their returns,” the Tax Foundation wrote.
The Trump administration is expecting the largest tax refund cycle “in history” this spring 2026. (Getty Images / Getty Images)
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The Tax Foundation lists seven major tax cuts that took effect under the OBBBA that could contribute to higher refunds, including increases to the child tax credit and standard deduction, a higher SALT deduction cap, and new or expanded deductions for seniors, auto loan interest, tip income and overtime pay.
