Unemployed residents in NH on the rise

TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK TURNING MUCH COOLER. WELCOME TO. NEW HAMPSHIRE’S. BUSINESS I’M FRED KOCHER. THE NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR AUGUST WAS 3%. IT WAS 2.6% A YEAR AGO AUGUST. THE NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED NEW HAMPSHIRE RESIDENTS IS DOWN AND THE NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED RESIDENTS IS SIGNIFICANTLY UP. SO WHY? WELL, HERE ARE THE NUMBERS. NEW HAMPSHIRE UNEMPLOYED. DOWN 751,005 90. THOSE ARE THE RESIDENTS EMPLOYED IN AUGUST OF 2025, A DECREASE OF 1001 90 FROM AUGUST 2024. AND NOW NEW HAMPSHIRE’S UNEMPLOYED, UP 23,740. NEW HAMPSHIRE RESIDENTS UNEMPLOYED IN AUGUST 25TH AND AN INCREASE OF 3010 FROM AUGUST 2024. WITH ME TO EXPLAIN WHY IS THE DIRECTOR OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE ECONOMIC AND LABOR MARKET INFORMATION BUREAU, BRIAN GOTTLIEB, WHOSE STAFF CALCULATED THESE NUMBERS? WELCOME, BRIAN. NICE TO HAVE YOU HERE. ALWAYS A PLEASURE, FRED. WHAT’S HAPPENING IN NEW HAMPSHIRE? WHERE THE UNEMPLOYED ARE IN EMPLOYED AND UNEMPLOYED. THE EMPLOYED A NUMBER UNEMPLOYED IS DOWN. THE NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED IS UP COMPARED TO 2020, FOR SURE. WELL, THE FIRST THING I WOULD SAY IS THAT IT’S ONE MONTH OF NUMBERS. SO I’M ALWAYS CAUTIONING PEOPLE ABOUT READING TOO MUCH INTO ONE MONTH OF NUMBERS. BUT THE FACT IS, THERE ARE MORE UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE IN THE STATE. AND WHAT I REALLY WANT PEOPLE TO KNOW IS THAT THE NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE ISN’T JUST PEOPLE WHO LOST THEIR JOBS. IT ALSO INCLUDES PEOPLE WHO ARE NEW INTO THE WORKFORCE AND PEOPLE WHO ARE REENTERING THE WORKFORCE. AND JUST TO PUT IT INTO PERSPECTIVE, ONLY HALF OF THOSE UNEMPLOYED NUMBERS ARE PEOPLE WHO ACTUALLY LOST A JOB. WE DID AN INTERVIEW A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO WITH THE RESEARCH DIRECTOR FROM THE NEW HAMPSHIRE FISCAL POLICY INSTITUTE, AND HE SAID EMPLOYERS AREN’T HIRING AS MUCH, BUT THEY’RE NOT LAYING OFF AS MUCH EITHER. AS USUAL. AND THE REASON IS UNCERTAINTY. ABSOLUTELY. AND I THINK THAT’S REALLY CRITICAL IN UNDERSTANDING WHAT’S HAPPENING RIGHT NOW, BECAUSE YOU SEE THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE JUMP UP. PEOPLE ARE GETTING NERVOUS. BUT WHAT I LOOK AT AS THE MOST CRITICAL PIECE OF INFORMATION IN TERMS OF HOW WE’RE DOING IN THE LABOR MARKET, IS WHAT’S HAPPENING WITH THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO ARE FILING FOR UNEMPLOYMENT. AND I CAN TELL YOU, FRED, THEY’VE INCHED UP A LITTLE BIT, BUT THEY’RE JUST NOW GETTING BACK TO THE NUMBERS THAT WE SAW IN 2019, WHICH WAS A PRETTY GOOD YEAR FOR FOR THE LABOR MARKET. BUT WHAT PARTICULAR SECTORS IN THE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE ECONOMY ARE HAVING TROUBLE RIGHT NOW? I KNOW MANUFACTURING, WHICH IS SO IMPORTANT TO THIS STATE IS ONE OF THEM. YEAH. AND I THINK A LOT OF WHAT IS HAPPENING AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL IS AFFECTING MANUFACTURERS. THERE’S A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO TARIFFS. THAT’S PUT A PAUSE ON HIRING. IT’S ALSO RAISED THE COSTS OF PRODUCTION FOR A LOT OF MANUFACTURERS AND OTHER INDUSTRY THAT I THINK IS AFFECTED. IS THE HOSPITALITY AND RETAIL INDUSTRIES ALSO INDUSTRIES THAT ARE BEING AFFECTED BY SOME OF THE THE NATIONAL EVENTS? YEAH. WHAT YOU’RE AN ECONOMIST TURNING TO THE NEW HAMPSHIRE ECONOMY AS A WHOLE, LOOKING FORWARD FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR. WHAT’S YOUR OUTLOOK? WELL, I DO EXPECT THAT THAT HIRING IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO SLOW. I THINK SOME OF THAT WILL CONTINUE, PARTLY BECAUSE THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. I EXPECT THE FIRST HALF OF 2026 TO BE A RELATIVELY SLOW GROWTH PERIOD FOR JOBS. WE MAY SEE MONTHS WHERE WE ACTUALLY SEE NEGATIVE JOB GROWTH. I THINK IT WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER THE SECOND HALF OF 2026. A LOT DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH TARIFFS, WHETHER THEY STAY HIGH, WHETHER THEY’RE STILL UNCERTAINTY. WELL YOU MENTIONED TARIFFS. AND IN PARTICULAR OUR BUSINESS WITH CANADA BACK AND FORTH OVER THE BORDER. SOME CANADIAN COMPANIES THAT ARE LOCATED IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ARE DEALING WITH TARIFFS IN BOTH DIRECTIONS. YEAH. AND THAT’S HAVING AN IMPACT. YOU MUST SEE IT. WE DEFINITELY SEE IT. YOU KNOW THE NUMBERS THAT I LOOK AT WE’RE SEEING A 42% DECLINE IN EXPORTS TO CANADA IN THE FIRST SIX MONTHS OF THIS YEAR FROM NEW HAMPSHIRE. WE’RE SEEING AN EQUIVALENT PERCENTAGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50% DECLINE IN INDIVIDUALS VISITING FROM CANADA CROSSING THE BORDER. THAT HAS TREMENDOUS IMPACTS ON ON OUR HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY. SO IT’S OUR LARGEST TRADING PARTNER. IMPORTANT RELATIONSHIPS. AND UNTIL THOSE ARE REPAIRED, WE’LL SEE SOME NEGATIVE IMPACTS. BRIAN GOTTLIEB, DIRECTOR OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE ECONOMIC AND LABOR MARKET INFORMATION BUREAU FOR THE STATE OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE PRINCIPAL AT POLYCON RESEARCH. THANK YOU. FRED. AND IF YOU MISSED PART OF THIS BRIEFING ON NEW HAMPSHIRE’S EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT SITUATION, YOU CAN GO TO WM